Showing posts with label Quotes. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Quotes. Show all posts

Friday, December 29, 2017

Tappan Zee Bridge's Awkward Location Explained

"The Tappan Zee crosses one of the widest points on the Hudson — the bridge is more than three miles long. And if you go just a few miles south, the river gets much narrower...Why did they build the Tappan Zee where they did, rather than building it a few miles south?

"It turns out, the bridge was part of a much larger project: The New York State Thruway, one of the first modern highway systems.  There was an alternate proposal for a bridge at a narrower spot nearby. The proposal was put forward by top engineers at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey.  But that proposal was killed by New York governor Thomas E. Dewey...

"The Port Authority — the body that proposed putting the bridge further south — had a monopoly over all bridges built in a 25-mile radius around the Statue of Liberty.  If the bridge had been built just a bit south of its current location — that is, if it had been built across a narrower stretch of the river — it would have been in the territory that belonged to the Port Authority.  As a result, the Port Authority — not the State of New York — would have gotten the revenue from tolls on the bridge. And Dewey needed that toll revenue to fund the rest of the Thruway." -- David Kestenbaum, A Big Bridge in the Wrong Place, NPR


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Thursday, February 04, 2016

Trending Towards Suburban "Main Street Living" and "Transit-Oriented Development"

"Millennials have traditionally been painted as a generation obsessed with urban living, but just like their parents and grandparents, they wants homes and good schools for their kids. While this demographic has put off having kids longer than previous generations, studies suggest a larger number will soon become parents, and quickly fuel a suburban boom, especially in areas surrounding markets such as Hartford, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh, which have seen post-recession job growth in the core. One ULI survey shows that six out of ten Gen-Y respondents expect to live in a detached single-family home five years from now. Of course, this doesn't mean they'll be living in the suburbs of yesterday. Suburbs (and developers) that replicate more Main Street living, including transit-oriented development and offer transportation options connected to big urban centers will see continued growth." -- "The Top 10 Emerging Trends Shaping Real Estate in 2016," Patrick Sisson, Curbed


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Wednesday, November 04, 2015

Return on Energy Investment

"[The World Bank is] investing in transformational energy projects across the region – and the world – because reliable and affordable power supplies aid business development greatly; every $1 invested in the power supply generates more than $15 in incremental GDP." 


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Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Vancouver House


Bjarke Ingles is one of the most innovative starchitects in urban design right now.  This blog previous wrote about him in this 2012 post.


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Tuesday, October 07, 2014

How Export Industrialization Spurs Growth

"Export success trickles down to the rest of developing economies. Since producers of non-traded goods and services, such as housebuilders and lawyers, must compete with exporters for labour, they need to pay attractive wages. At the same time the chance of well-paid work in manufacturing creates an incentive for workers to move to cities and invest in education. An industrialising export sector is like a speedboat that pulls the rest of the economy out of poverty." -- Emerging Economies: Arrested Development


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Monday, June 16, 2014

Predicting Global Economic Trends

Tampa, Florida Weekly Car Count Report

While Big Data firms often struggle to find applications for their hordes of information, Skybox moves from a data collection firm to a business packaging highly useful information.  Using aerial imagery and video from a fleet of micro-satellites, Skybox applies computer algorithms to analyze, track, and predict global economic trends.  The Wall Street Journal explains:
"In 2010, an analyst at UBS discovered that if he bought satellite images of parking lots of Wal-Mart stores, he could predict the company's sales figures before they were revealed in its quarterly earnings report, because cars in lots equal shoppers in stores.
"We're looking at Foxconn every week," Mr. Berkenstock [co-founder of Skybox] says, because measuring the density of trucks outside the Taiwanese company's manufacturing facilities tells Skybox when the next iPhone will be released.
"Skybox can determine how much oil is being pumped out of the ground in Saudi Arabia by imaging oil-storage tanks from above. The company can peg the likely price of grain months in advance by measuring the health of every square yard of cropland on Earth." -- Amid Stratospheric Valuations, Google Unearths a Deal With Skybox, Wall Street Journal, 6/15/2014
Google reported purchased Skybox for $500 million.  This acquisition emphasizes the search giant's continued goal of revolutionizing the world's access to new sources of information.


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Monday, January 06, 2014

End of the BRICs

"When the [BRIC] acronym came into common use, a decade ago, the BRIC countries—Brazil, Russia, India, and China—contributed roughly 20 percent of global economic growth. Although China was already the heavyweight, it did not yet dominate: in 2004, the country contributed 13 percent of global growth in gross domestic product, while Brazil, Russia, and India combined contributed 9 percent, with similar growth rates. Compare that with the experience of the past two years. China accounted for 26 percent of global economic growth in 2012 and for 29 percent in 2013. The collective share of Brazil, Russia, and India has shrunk to just 7 percent."


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Sunday, May 12, 2013

The Drying of Yemen's Agricultural Economy

Shibam, Yemen
Photo: Yemen Profile, BBC
“No famine has ever taken place in the history of the world in a functioning democracy.” 
—  Amartya Sen, Nobel Prize Winning Economist

“[Yemen's] environmental disaster was born in the 1970s when the oil/construction boom exploded in the Persian Gulf, and some two million to three million unskilled Yemeni men left their villages to build Saudi Arabia. “As a result,” said [Abdul Rahman al-Eryani, Yemen’s former minister of water and environment], “the countryside was depopulated of manpower.” Women resorted to cutting trees for fuel and the terraces eroded because of lack of maintenance. That led to widespread erosion of hillsides and the massive silting of the wadis — seasonal riverbeds — whose rich soil used to support three crops a year, including Yemen’s famed coffee. The silting up of the wadis crushed the coffee business and led Yemenis to grow other cash crops that needed less fertile soil. The best was qat, the narcotic leaf to which this country is addicted. But qat requires a lot of water, and that led to overdrafting of groundwater.

“...Qat drank all the water, and the easy oil money seduced the rural manpower into leaving for unskilled jobs. But now that most of the Yemeni workers have been sent home from Saudi Arabia, they are finding a country running out of water, with few jobs, and a broken public school system that teaches more religion than science. As a result, what Yemen needs most — an educated class not tied to an increasingly water-deprived agriculture — it cannot get, not without much better leadership and a new political consensus.”
— Thomas Friedman, NYTimes


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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Economic Growth

The Importance of Broadband Expansion on Economic Growth
In the US, "for every one percentage point increase in broadband penetration in a state, employment is projected to increase by 0.2 to 0.3 percent per year...A 7 percentage point boost in national broadband adoption could lead to $662 million in annual healthcare savings, and $6.4 billion in annual mileage savings...[In Michigan] just one percentage point increase in broadband penetration could create or save approximately 12,388 jobs statewide." -- Broadband’s Economic Impact in Michigan, InfrastructureUSA, also see Technology Infrastructure

The Importance of Economic Growth in Indian Politics
In India, if a minister oversees rapid growth within his state, "each extra percentage point of growth raises the chances of [a candidate from that minister's party] winning a seat in the national parliament by 5-6 percentage points." -- The Capitalist Manifesto: How to Get India Moving Again


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Sunday, April 07, 2013

On growth trends in frontier economies:


“Banks are among the first enterprises to [publicly] list. Next come telecoms firms, breweries and cement companies, which need a lot of capital spending to sustain their growth…Cement stocks are a way for small investors to get exposure to infrastructure projects, which are financed by private and development banks.” – Investing in Africa: Strategies for putting money to work in a fast-growing continent


Frontier markets growth indicators


Update 1/24/2014: "For investors in Africa’s stockmarkets, BBC means banks, breweries and cement...in places where official statistics are scarce or unreliable, their trading figures are often a good guide to how much lending, spending and building is taking place in African economies."  -- Africa's Economies: A Tippler's Guide


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Saturday, April 06, 2013

King Abdullah Economic City: Interview with Fahd Al-Rasheed


The follow interview is taken from McKinsey Quarterly's Rethinking Infrastructure.  It lays out a clear, honest explanation of the type of challenges and thought processes that go into successfully creating and inhabiting a city built from scratch.

The King Abdullah Economic City is a critical component of Saudi Arabia’s effort to diversify its economy, attract foreign investment, modernize its society, and provide jobs for citizens, 65 percent of whom are under the age of 30. The city is one of four such Saudi urban megaprojects, similar to China’s flourishing special economic zones. It will contain a port, expected to become operational this year, that will rank among the world’s ten largest such facilities, an industrial sector to support energy-intensive industries, a business district for local and international tenants, a tourism center, hospitals, schools, and a residential district with more than 300,000 apartments and villas.

In this video, CEO and managing director Fahd Al-Rasheed describes the vision behind this massive infrastructure project and the challenges of moving from the drawing board to implementation while keeping the goals of growth and sustainability squarely in mind. This interview was conducted by McKinsey’s Rik Kirkland in Istanbul, Turkey, in November 2012. What follows is an edited transcript of Fahd Al-Rasheed’s remarks.


King Abdullah Economic City: A new model
The government of Saudi Arabia is thinking about what does government look like in the 21st century in terms of delivery to citizens of the private sector. And they’ve implemented that. Now, the city itself is based on several components. One is a port that, in my mind, will change the logistics map globally. The trade routes will change, stoppages, et cetera. And it will have a very positive impact on transportation costs over the long term. It will be one of the largest ten ports in the world, and the first phase is going to be opened end of next year [2013]. It will have a logistics back end to it.

The second is the industrial zone, which is focused on what we can do best, which is energy-intensive industries. We are trying to attract many of those. We have a very competitive advantage. The third, really, is tourism. And we understand we can’t compete with Paris, Dubai, and New York, but we are still the 17th most visited country in the world because of the Hajj and Umrah for Muslims. So we’re trying to address how can we serve these visitors in a more elaborate way and provide them with tourism opportunities around their religious experience.

And then there’s housing. The population of the kingdom is 65 percent under 30. We need to build four million housing units over the next 20 years, so we need housing, and we’re set up for that. If we get 10 percent of that market, we’ll build up the city, end to end, by 2030. We’re targeting two million people. It’s the size, physically, of Washington, DC. The port will be one of the largest ten ports in the world.



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Sunday, February 17, 2013

Designing African Cities

Over the past few months, I have continually wrestled with many questions stemming from an expose on Norman Foster. Norman Foster, the mastermind behind the utopian technology showcase known as Masdar City, feels that his next life challenge rests in Africa, designing urban spaces for the populations that currently fill the world's slums.  A short excerpt (seen below) has repeatedly sent my mind imaging thousands of possibilities of future urban developments, however, I constantly come back to a single quandary: how to create a city in the developing world that largely consists of young, connected, unemployed masses.  This drastically differs from the Masdar model that includes self-driving cars for its wealthy residents.  Accepting demographic constraints as reality and not having false hopes for instant fixes, the true challenge of the 21st century will be to transform urban living for masses of the world population.


Masdar City (click to enlarge)
Source: NYTimes, 9/26/2010
The following are taken from J.M. Ledgard's Norman Foster's New World in Intelligent Life magazine, November/December 2012:

Africa's population will double to 2 billion before 2050. Its urban population will more than quadruple. There are unlikely to be enough jobs for young people to stave off populist unrest. Climate change is likely to jack up food prices and exacerbate water shortages...


[Norman Foster] oversaw a project with Sagoo and others to look more closely at the Dharavi slum in Mumbai. They discovered that what people there needed was horizontal space. "They needed to make and move their products across the ground floor of a dwelling. The other side of the dwelling was the railway line where the goods were displayed and sold. This community could easily subsist in a low-rise settlement, two, maybe three or even four storeys. What would never work would be to put one dwelling on another. It would offer an improved environment, but it would be impossible for them to bake bread to earn a livelihood, or to recycle waste." What is needed in African slums", Foster ventures, "is the industrialisation of units that provide the sanitation, kitchens, energy-harvesting, run-off of rainwater, and a proper infrastructure of drains and sewers. That would be transformational, but that's a very different approach to the design-profession response to wipe it clean and superimpose another order, which completely disregards the fact that, notwithstanding the horrific deprivation, there is an underlying social order and an organic response to needs."

Photo from Foster sponsored research of African cities

Foster emerged from Manchester on his own merits and is not inclined to socialism based on sentiment. Still, the cause of African future cities need not be philanthropy. There is plenty of money to be made from squatters. Most of the economic growth in the world in the coming years will be from the poorest bits of cities in the poorest countries. Companies such as Coca-Cola and Unilever expect their profits from these communities to swell. Nokia will rise or fall according to whether slum-dwellers continue to buy its low-end phones. There is money in Foster's idea of laying down grids, especially for cities yet to be built. And there is reason to be optimistic about new technologies, such as solar-panel roof sheeting, affordable windows, LED lighting, gargantuan rainwater tanks, and high-tech latrines that pay for themselves by filtering urine into water and microwaving excrement into fuel. Africa's dense gatherings of young people present a high degree of political risk, but they also create economic value.

2012 RIBA Norman Foster Travelling Scholarship Winning Proposal
(click to enlarge)

"...in an African continent [says Foster] you are creating an urban infrastructure from scratch. So instead of thinking as in the past that you have one authority talking about pylons, another rail, another roads, why not bring those together with tremendous economy and elegance?...Olmsted laid out Central Park at the time when people were herding sheep, horses and carts. Now, bringing back a pedestrian-friendly experience, taking away the dependence on gasoline, why drive when you could walk, design with an understanding that these are very scarce commodities—Africa has that opportunity."

Update (2/18/2013):  It looks like others are reaching similar conclusions...see "These May Be The Least 'Livable' Cities, But They're the Future"


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Tuesday, July 24, 2012

India's Persisting Caste System

In a fascinating explanation of why the caste systems persists in India, Kaivan Munshi of Brown University explores how generations-old social networks perpetuate an 'unbreakable' class hierarchy:

"In the stylized world described by introductory economics textbooks, the market provides insurance and credit for people to invest and make purchases. Workers find jobs instantaneously and are paid a wage in line with their ability. The real world, especially a developing economy, does not function in this way. Market insurance is unavailable to a large section of the population. Bank credit is also unavailable without collateral, either because banks cannot observe whether borrowers are creditworthy or because they will refuse to repay their loans even when they can. Finally, many individuals do not get the jobs they deserve, either because they don’t have the money to invest in costly education or because potential employers have no way of knowing how able they really are and so will be reluctant to hire them.

"In such an economy, social networks will often emerge in response to market failures. Members of a tight-knit social group, living in the same neighborhood or sharing kinship ties, are well aware of the creditworthiness and the ability of each other. Members of such groups can also be sanctioned for reneging on their commitments. This allows social groups to form informal ‘mutual insurance arrangements’ and to provide loans to their members. Employed workers can also help capable unemployed members of their group find a job by providing referrals. Social networks thus work in parallel with the market economy, supporting the economic activity of their members in many different ways.

"In India, individuals continue to marry almost exclusively within their (sub) caste or jati. [Less than five percent of the respondents in all the surveys I have conducted, in rural and in urban India, marry outside their caste.] Given the segregation along caste lines that continues to characterize the Indian village, most social interactions also occur within the caste. The jati is thus the natural social unit around which networks would crystallize in India. Indeed, rural insurance arrangements and urban job networks have long been organized around the jati. It is this relatively unexplored feature of the caste system – the ability of the caste to provide major forms of economic support to its members – that I believe has much to do with its persistence in modern Indian society."

To read Munshi's full article or others about India's unique economic and social structure, please visit the new blog site Ideas for India for More Evidence Based Policy.


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Thursday, June 28, 2012

Infrastructure Demands of an Urban World

McKinsey Global Institute today published a report on worldwide urban growth.  Urban World: Cities and the Rise of the Consuming Class provides data that scream for huge investments in emerging markets' urban infrastructure.  The McKinsey report is so consistent with the city-building work at Gale International, that, like a sales pitch, it reaffirms our convictions of expanding middle classes and global urban needs.  Here are some excerpts from the report:


  • Cities that fail to meet the aspirations of the millions who are migrating in search of better opportunities run the risk of congestion, pollution, and insufficient public services becoming barriers to growth.
  • To deliver the benefits of economies of scale while minimizing the hazards of rapid growth, cities need to have professional planning and coordination, capable and accountable governance, and sustainable and responsible fiscal management.
  • If cities manage their capacity building well, there is a large opportunity not only for the world's investors but also to build more productive capacity that is less costly and more efficient in environmental terms for decades to come.  Importantly, the urban planning and infrastructure investment choices made today will determine how well cities are prepared for sustained growth after the expansive urbanization wave passes.  After most people have already moved to urban regions, cities will need to find new sources of productivity gains and economic growth.  Urban centers that have built well-functioning and efficient environments for businesses and individuals will be in a better position to attract skilled works and grow more productive businesses.
  • Cities will need annual physical capital investment to more than double from nearly $10 trillion today to more than $20 trillion by 2025.  Urban centers in emerging economies will make most of this investment.
  • McKinsey research in India suggests that it can be 30 to 50 percent less expensive for large cities to deliver basic services including water, housing, and education than it is in more sparsely populated rural areas.
  • Emerging market cities will account for close to half (47 percent) of expected global GDP growth between 2010 and 2025.
  • In China, for instance, spending on dining out starts to take off at annual incomes of around $3,000 per household and, by about $9,000, is on a firm and steep upward trajectory.  Spending on transport and communications starts increasing strongly as incomes reach around $6,000 per annum...Travel for leisure and retail banking services for deposits start climbing once per capita income reaches $18,000 per annum.

  • By 2025, cities will need to construct floor space equivalent to 85 percent of all of today's urban residential and commercial building stock...The urban building boom will require cumulative investment, including for replacement buildings, of nearly $80 trillion.
  • The investment needed to expand port capacity to 2025 exceeds $200 billion by our reckoning, with 85 percent of it taking place in emerging markets.


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Saturday, March 03, 2012

Russia's New Middle Class

Click to Enlarge
The middle class is the biggest driver of economic growth.  Promoting this class is the most surefire way of lifting vast groups of people from poverty.  Emerging markets (as well as many developing nations) are starting to experience economic expansion driven largely by the middle class.  

The Economist recently published the above graphic to show Russia's re-entrance onto the world stage (while at the same time arguing contrarily against Putin's power).  I imagine other BRIC countries have similar stats to those listed above.


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Thursday, March 01, 2012

The Impact of Gasoline Price Increases:

"A penny a gallon is worth a bit over $1 billion in consumer purchasing power if it is maintained a whole year.  A dollar more would be something in excess of $100 billion." 
-- Neal Soss, Chief Economist, Credit Suisse (NYTimes 2/29/2012)


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Wednesday, February 01, 2012

City-Scale Development: A Look into How New Cities Ease the Infrastructure Burdens of the 21st Century

Karachi, Pakistan, houses 13 million residents and presides over 95% of Pakistan’s foreign trade, but poor infrastructure destines the overcrowded megacity to endure everlasting poverty.  The Karachi Mega Development Project report of 2005 blatantly acknowledges that the deteriorated quality of Karachi’s infrastructure “impacts adversely on the country’s economic growth and development prospects.”  Households allege to only having running water for a few hours every other day.  Pipe leakages lose an estimated 50% of all drinkable water and the leaks’ detriments to water pressure only exacerbate the problem.  Nonetheless, the shortfalls of the sewage systems make the water network admirable in comparison. 

Only one quarter of Karachi’s sewage successfully journeys through “undersized and broken sections” of the sewage network to the city’s wastewater treatment plants.  Once there, the plants suffer from operating at 50% overcapacity.  The Mega Development Project report asserts that “annual flooding causes both damage to homes and infrastructure, and constitutes a significant health risk from floodwaters contaminated by the raw sewage which flows in the drainage network.”

Unfortunately, the infrastructure problems that plague Karachi are not unique.  Growing urban populations across the globe expose the limitations and the finite durability of ever thinly-stretched city infrastructure.  Many existing water pipes, inner-city roads, and sewage systems, often built for the cities of yesteryear and a pre-seven billion inhabitant world, have already surpassed or are approaching their maximum capacities.  Sadly, fixing existing problems tends to be too costly a burden for city and national governments, and cost-cutting maneuvers lead to poorly constructed, short-term solutions.

However, instead of expensively retrofitting infrastructure through piecemeal reconstruction, a modern trend has provided governments a long-term, cost effective way to house expanding populations: New City construction.

Thoroughly engineered, decongested cities allocate resources more efficiently through their fully integrated infrastructure – an indispensable trait that will prove a matter of survival in a sustainable 21st century.  As efficiency demands increase and technologies speed globalization, master planned cities also add needed economic benefits by defining clear regional roles in the world economy.  Planners, engineers, and architects now design cities specifically to give industries naturally built advantages.

As the world hastily industrializes and urban populations relentlessly grow, the overcrowding problems that infected the dreary, 20th century rapidly industrializing cities now reach every corner of the globe.  Yet decentralized, new urban systems help mitigate population growth to rates manageable enough for cities to address infrastructure demands.  New cities can alleviate these increasing pressures while joining populations to an international, globalized world economy.



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Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Learning from History (17th Century Spain)

17th Century Spanish Swordsmen
“In Spain, repeated bankruptcies between 1557 and 1647 were coupled with desperate measures to stave off disaster.  War, the church, and administering the complex bureaucratic system provided the major organizational opportunities in Spain and in consequence the military, priesthood, and the judiciary were rewarding occupations.  The expulsion of the Moors and Jews, rent ceilings on land and price ceilings on wheat, confiscation of silver remittances to merchants in Seville (who were compensated with relatively worthless bonds called juros) were symptomatic of the disincentives to productive activity…

“The most telling evidence of the increasing returns feature of the Spanish institutional fabric was the inability of the crown and its bureaucracy to alter the direct of the Spanish path in spite of their awareness of the decay and decline overcoming the country.  In a century – the seventeenth – Spain declined from the most powerful nation in the Western world since the Roman empire to a second-rate power…

“Jan De Vries in his study (1976) of Europe in the age of crisis describes the effort to reverse the decline as follows:

“But this was not a society unaware of what was happening.  A whole school of economic reformers…wrote mountains of tracts pleading for new measures…Indeed, in 1623, a Junta de Reformacion recommended to the new King, Phillip IV, a series of measure including taxes to encourage earlier marriage (and, hence, population growth), limitations on the number of servants, the establishment of a bank, prohibitions on the import of luxuries, the closing of brothels, and the prohibition of the teaching of Latin in small towns (to reduce the flight from agriculture of peasants who had acquired a smattering of education).  But no willpower could be found to follow through on these recommendations…It is said that the only accomplishment of the reform movement was the abolition of the ruff collar, a fashion which had imposed ruinous laundry bills on the aristocracy.” -- Douglass C. North, Institutions, Institutional Change, and Economic Performance


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Saturday, January 21, 2012

"Yesterday the number of people living in [Chinese] cities exceeded the rural population for the first time...Urban dwellers now represent 51.27 percent, or 690.8 million people, of China’s entire population of nearly 1.35 billion." -- Taipei Times (1/18/2012)


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Thursday, December 29, 2011

"The United States will add a new inhabitant every 17 seconds and an immigrant every 46 seconds." -- El Deber on the US Census


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