Wednesday, March 06, 2013

Venezuelan President Chavez Pronounced Dead: Initial Knee-Jerk Reaction

While I have not yet done my full due-diligence and fully read up on the situation, here is my initial thoughts on the passing of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez:

It will be interesting to see how the political situation in Venezuela shakes out.  Already the Vice President booted US Diplomats from the Bolivarian nation.  Might this be a sign of another power grab stranglehold?  Or is it an honest attempt at avoiding foreign tampering?  I remain skeptical and err towards a fight for power.


Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez
Source: Washington Times
Originally Chavez took control via coup and then spent a decade and a half shooting down political opposition.  After his death, there will surely be a mystery as the question of what happens next unravels.  A new set of democratic elections would surely be best, but it is likely that someone else from within the inner circle will try to fill the power vacuum -- someone less charismatic than Chavez who will likely not have the same support of the people that the socialist leader had.  A new power grab will probably lead to unrest and uncertain times in Venezuela.  My guess is that it will take a handful of years and a few bad leaders before the country can right the ship after the past decade plus under Chavez.  Think of Egypt -- it's hard to reestablish political cohesion after strongman politics disappears instantly.  Expect the same in Venezuela, where public support for socialism is polar split, the economy constantly flirts with runaway inflation, and the high-stakes game of oil is too lucrative to ignore.


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