Red Sox Predictions

In honor of Opening Day tomorrow for the Red Sox, here are a few positive signs from Spring Training:

Even though most sports writers cite Jarrod Saltalamacchia and the catching position as the biggest question mark, we not only heard great stories about Saltalamacchia’s work ethic, but the young journeyman led the Sox this Spring with a Batting Average of .405, an On-Base Percentage of .465, and a Slugging Percentage of .640.

Jacoby Ellsbury missed almost the entire 2010 season, but is penciled in to leadoff.  This Spring, Ells proved he’s fully healthy and ready to have his much anticipated break-out season.  He led the team in hits (22) and in total bases (35), which is a great sign for your leadoff bat.

Josh Beckett, another worry entering 2011, is listed on certain sports books as predicted to only win 12.5 games this season, hardly what you expect from your $68 million man.  This Spring, although he suffered some rough losses, Beckett built up confidence in his change-up, which is exactly how a veteran should utilize Spring Training.  Beckett also silenced critics with a team high 18 Ks in the Grapefruit League and a stellar final performance in Houston.

While the entire ESPN staff is busy predicting the state of the league in October, I guess I'll fall in line and post my 2011 Red Sox Predictions.  As everyone familiar with the world of baseball knows, predictions are just for entertainment value.  Always expect the unexpected.  But with that said, 42 of 45 ESPN analysts picked Boston to be playing in the World Series.  Gordon Edes notes, "Tinpot dictators hold elections less one-sided."  While the experts look into Pennant and Playoff Race crystal balls, here's my look into the future on how the individuals who make this team so legendary on paper should play out this year:

Starting Line-Up:

Ellsbury: 18 HR, 130 R, 70 SB, .300 Ave, .380 OBP, .430 SLG, .820 OPS

Pedroia: .300 Ave, .370 OBP, .450 SLG, .820 OPS

Crawford: 130 R, 23 HR, 60 SB, .295 Ave, .360 OBP, .510 SLG, .870 OPS

Youkilis: 115 RBI, 31 HR, 90 BB, .310 Ave., .435 OBP, .575 SLG, .995 OPS

Gonzalez: 40 HR, .300 Ave., 130 RBI, .430 OBP, .590 SLG, 1.020 OPS

Ortiz: 23 HR, 80 RBI, .245 Ave., .330 OBP, .446 SLG, .776 OPS

Drew: 100 Games, 370 AB, .255 Ave., .330 OBP, .425 SLG, .755 OPS

Saltalamacchia: 120 Games, .280 Ave., .330 OBP, .370 SLG, .700 OPS

Scutaro: .260 Ave., .330 OBP, .360 SLG, .690 OPS - Traded at Deadline

Bench:

Cameron: (if not traded) 80 Games, 300 AB, .270 Ave., .330 OBP, .430 SLG, .760 OPS

Lowrie: 60 Games (if Scutaro not traded), 210 AB, .285 Ave., .380 OBP, .430 SLG, .810 OPS

Varitek: 40 Games, 1 CS, .230 Ave., .290 OBP, .350 SLG, .640 OPS

Rotation:

Lester: 2.90 ERA, 22 W, 7 L, 200 IP, 10.25 K/9

Lackey: 3.80 ERA, 18 W, 9 L, 180 IP, 7 K/9

Buchholz: 3.60 ERA, 14 W, 10L, 180 IP, 6.9 K/9

Beckett: 3.70 ERA, 17 W, 10 L, 160 IP, 9.7 K/9

Matsuzaka: 5.00 ERA, 9 W, 6 L, 1.60 K/BB, 6.8 K/9, 5.66 IP/G

Bullpen:

Papelbon: 3.50 ERA, 9 K/9, 3.00 K/BB, 5 BS, Traded At Deadline (or more likely, Sent to the DL)

Bard: 1.80 ERA, 10.45 K/9, 3.25 K/BB, 25 SV

Jenks: 4.00 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 3.50 K/BB, 4 SV

Wakefield: 4.50 ERA, 80 IP, 5 K/9, 1.89 K/BB

The 2011 dream team will win 97 games, falling three game shy of the 100 win mark set by Josh Beckett.

Let's see how well these numbers hold up when we look back at the end of September.  GO SOX!

Red Sox Predictions