Expectations for the Sox Offseason

The 2010 MLB season was a disappointment for the Red Sox.  Injuries, inconsistent pitching, and the most competitive division in sports resulted in a disappointing end for the Boston club.  As the pre-Thanksgiving, first round of GM meetings take place, the only news (beyond the usual conjecture and speculative media hype) to come out of Orlando is that the owners are pushing for the likely addition of a 2012 wildcard playoff round.  Finishing third in the AL East, behind the Yankees and the Rays, the Sox would have qualified for this Wildcard Playoff.  Instead, the sixth ranked team in the league started an early offseason.

During the GM meetings last year, 2010 appeared to be a rebuilding season for the ballclub, with farm system prospects set to graduate in 2012.  Theo Epstein, Tom Werner, and John Henry spent the meetings defending the club’s ability to contend.  The front office responded with acquisitions of Jon Lackey, Mike Cameron, and Adrian Beltre.

Try this hat
on for size

This year, the Sox have no catcher or third baseman and only half a bullpen.  The front office indicated it will aggressively pursue a free agent outfielder. Carl Crawford has been consistent throughout his career (.307 AVG and .824 OPS in five of the past six seasons).  Jayson Werth’s past four seasons in Philly have been stellar (.881 OPS).  Unfortunately, Werth strikes out too much for the Sox liking (147 SOs in 2010, down from 156 in 2009).  With that in mind, the Sox also tend to shy away from age in long-term deals (Werth is 31 vs Crawford 29.)  Remember, the Sox wouldn’t go past the $60M, four-year offer for the 31-year-old Jason Bay last season.  So expect a bigger push toward Crawford.  (Strangely, the front office has to know that the competitive market for these two superstars will probably drive their price tags into the five-year, $80M range – a risk Epstein has only once before taken with a position player, JD Drew.  History has yet to convince me of the sincerity of comments regarding courtship with these two.)

Ells a DBack?

Assuming the front office goes after Carl Crawford, Francona would have four everyday caliber outfielders. Expect a BIG trade centered around Jacoby Ellsbury.  Don’t listen to the propaganda that Ells and the front office are best friends after last season’s public berating Ells and agent Scott Boras gave the medical staff.  Convenient as it may be, Jacoby is still the biggest trade chip the Sox have in the outfield.  Although Ellsbury isn’t the deadweight in the outfield, neither JD Drew nor Mike Cameron could bring an impact player to Boston.  Their contracts are too large for any bidder to accept their mediocrity (respectively, $14M for .255 AVG and $7.75M for 48 games last season).  Ellsbury, on the other hand, is just becoming arbitration eligible this year and only receive $496,500 last season (perfect for a cash strapped franchise like San Diego).  Jacoby could easily be converted into a Justin Upton or an Adrian Gonzalez, but Epstein will also be open to an acquisition of a premier reliever and a top prospect.

When Will We
See Iglesias in
a Sox Uniform?

The average and expendable Marco Scutaro is going to be perfect trade bait for a solid reliever.  Since there are a handful of teams with holes at short this year, Scut might even bring the Sox a couple of decent arms.  The rest of the ‘pen will be filled using the usual Theo magic, picking up tons of cheap arms and having them fight for roster spots (the market is saturated with relievers).  The Sox then have options at short.  They will at least make a serious play for Justin Upton.  If Arizona asks for too much (Although the Sox will gladly offer up Ellsbury, I don’t see Theo parting with Daniel Bard), Boston could easily start the season with Jed Lowrie at SS and in August platoon in prospect and first future franchise short stop since Nomar, Jose Iglesias (Cuban defector with .295 Minor League AVG in 2010).

Will Theo Make a
Push for Gonzalez
This Offseason
or Next?

This time last year, I wrote, “[T]he Sox don't have any infield prospect Major League ready. Since there is a fairly decent sized class of third base free agents available this off season, my guess is that Theo is waiting for a cheap bargain to pop up just before Spring Training. I'm fine with waiting to get a cheap, year long replacement for Lowell.”  Epstein then signed Adrian Beltre to a one-year deal.  Expect the same this year.  Theo seems set to make a full-court press for Adrian Gonzalez (and move Youkilis to third) after the end of the 2011 season.  The front office could easily start that push now.  More likely, Theo will decide that it’s not worth losing Ellsbury in a trade for a player the Sox will inevitably sign next winter (trade or no trade, they would have to sign Gonzalez to a new contract or an extension).  Without a deal with the Padres, Epstein will wait for Gonzalez to hit free agency.  Look for another one-year solution at third.

Welcome V-Mart
Back to Boston

As for catcher, the Sox may not like Victor Martinez behind the plate, but they will be forced to pick him up.  John Henry will probably have to pay up for more years than the front office would like simply because their hands are tied.  Jarrod Saltalamacchia has yet to prove himself and the Sox can’t risk entering the season with such a big unknown.  When they do sign “Victory” Martinez, look for the contract to be front-loaded so the front office can trade him away after two years.

In summary, if the Sox sign Carl Crawford, as they’ve indicated, the expendable Jacoby Ellsbury will become the central trading chip of a blockbuster deal.  Look for Marco Scutaro to get moved to address dire bullpen needs.  And almost certainly, get ready for an overpaid (four years) Victor Martinez to resume duties behind the plate.

Expectations for the Sox Offseason